A glance at the numbers underscores the gravity of the task ahead. In the 2019 presidential contest, then-PDP candidate Atiku Abubakar secured 11.2 million votes against President Muhammadu Buhari’s 15.1 million. However, by 2023, the political equation had changed dramatically with the emergence of Peter Obi as the Labour Party’s standard-bearer—a development that significantly reshaped Nigeria’s electoral map.
Official results from the 2023 presidential election revealed the following:
Bola Ahmed Tinubu (APC): 8,794,726 votes
Atiku Abubakar (PDP):6,984,520 votes
Peter Obi (Labour Party):6,101,533 votes
These figures are more than statistics—they are evidence of a seismic political shift. Atiku’s traditional dominance in regions like the South-South, South-East, and North-Central was dramatically weakened. In 2019, he held 72% of the South-South and a staggering 80% of the South-East. By 2023, Peter Obi had upended this dynamic, capturing 84% of the South-East, leading the South-South with 43%, and narrowly outpacing Atiku in the North-Central.
Such a realignment is not incremental—it is transformative. It signals the rise of a new political consciousness, one that no serious opposition movement can afford to ignore.
Peter Obi’s ability to garner over six million votes—despite running under a relatively young party with limited financial and institutional muscle—highlights his organic appeal, particularly among Nigeria’s increasingly active youth demographic. His candidacy energized a base often written off as politically apathetic, translating hope into votes.
It is important to remember that Atiku himself once played a central role in the 2015 opposition coalition that ousted President Goodluck Jonathan. Back then, he championed the principle of internal party agreements and regional justice. Ahead of the 2023 elections, Atiku even declared that he would not contest if the PDP zoned its presidential ticket to the South-East—an assertion that resonated with many within and beyond his party.
Unfortunately, internal divisions—most notably the ambitions of then-Governor Nyesom Wike—undermined this promise. Wike pushed for a broader Southern zoning formula, only to later sabotage PDP’s cohesion from within.
Today, the APC under Tinubu is already setting the stage for a northern presidential return in 2031. This looming scenario should compel the opposition to revisit its priorities and reposition for relevance.
The current alignment of both Peter Obi and Atiku Abubakar under the African Democratic Congress (ADC) is more than coincidence—it may represent a once-in-a-generation opportunity. This moment fuses necessity, justice, demography, and strategy into a singular historic window. The case for Obi leading a united opposition is not built on sentiment but on the logic of electoral calculus.
In 2023, Obi didn’t just perform respectably—he broke long-standing political molds. He won across ethnic and religious divides, inspired civic activism, and shifted the political conversation toward merit, transparency, and accountability. His strong showing in North-Central—traditionally a PDP-leaning bloc—was especially telling.
Yes, the North remains crucial in any electoral equation, but 2023 proved that no single region can permanently dictate national outcomes. The evolving voter mindset now values character over connections, and credibility over cash.
With the ADC offering a neutral and growing platform, the groundwork exists for an opposition alliance with real momentum. But time is of the essence. The window for unity will not remain open forever.
If the opposition is serious about dislodging the APC in 2027, it must move swiftly—around a vision, a strategy, and a candidate who can build bridges across Nigeria’s fractured political landscape.
Peter Obi has already shown what is possible. Atiku Abubakar brings vast experience, a national network, and the gravitas of statesmanship. Together, they present the best hope for a credible challenge.
The numbers do not lie. The people have shifted. The tide has turned. The question now is whether the opposition will read the signs—or repeat the mistakes of the past.
