The regulator disclosed that, although losses have reduced to their lowest levels in 16 years, the cumulative economic impact remains severe, undermining growth prospects, weakening the naira, and discouraging investors.
Breakdown of Losses
NUPRC data show that:
- 2021: 37.6 million barrels were lost, valued at $2.66bn.
- 2022: 20.9 million barrels, valued at $2.11bn.
- 2023: 4.3 million barrels, valued at $355.7m.
- 2024: 4.1 million barrels, valued at $330.3m.
- 2025 (Jan–July): 2.04 million barrels, valued at $146.5m.
In total, the losses amounted to $5.61bn (₦8.41tn), based on average Brent crude prices.
To put this in context, the amount could have funded the construction of 56,074 primary health centres, 129,401 classroom blocks, or over 10,000 kilometres of road across the country.
Expert Reactions
Energy expert Chukwuma Atuanya, based in the United States, described the progress in reducing losses as encouraging but warned that Nigeria is still below its production target.
“The country needs an additional 400,000 barrels per day to hit the 2 million bpd target by December 2025. Losses of 9,600 bpd remain significant,” he noted.
He explained that oil theft continues to hurt foreign exchange earnings, weaken the naira, fuel budget deficits, and undermine investor confidence.
Professor Dayo Ayoade, an energy law scholar at the University of Lagos, questioned the accuracy of NUPRC’s figures, citing weak metering systems. He also faulted security agencies for failing to prosecute culprits.
“How can trillions vanish and nobody is punished? Until we start prosecuting complicit officials and political actors, this cycle will continue,” he said.
NUPRC’s Position
The regulator maintained that reforms introduced through the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA), along with the deployment of new technologies and community engagement strategies, have significantly reduced daily losses to 9,600 barrels per day in July 2025 — the lowest since 2009.
Despite this, experts stress that systemic governance reforms, transparency in reporting, and strict enforcement are necessary to bring oil theft down to tolerable levels.
The Bigger Picture
For a country where crude oil accounts for over 90% of foreign exchange earnings, the ₦8.41tn already lost represents a staggering setback. Observers say it stands as a reminder of Nigeria’s missed opportunities to transform its healthcare, education, and infrastructure sectors.
