Presenting the report, Sharon Orisakwe, CEO of Eagle Badger Data Analytics, described the index as an early-warning tool for governments and institutions. “The Stability Index is the canary in the mine. It is designed to warn early, when there is still time to act,” she said.
Nigeria Improves but Remains Fragile
Despite being among the lowest-ranked countries, Nigeria’s score improved by 8.3 percentage points over the past year. This progress was attributed to a decline in terrorism-related incidents and renewed investor confidence, supported by signs of macroeconomic stabilization.
Orisakwe welcomed the gains but cautioned against complacency. “Nigeria is moving in the right direction, and that deserves attention. Reduced terrorist activity and greater economic stability are changing perceptions. But Nigeria is still in the red zone. That tells us the journey is far from over.”
She noted that investments in agriculture, education, and healthcare were beginning to generate momentum, with the potential to shift Nigeria from fragility to resilience if sustained.
Displacement as a Warning Sign
One of the report’s key findings is the strong correlation between internal displacement and future instability. EBDA’s data shows that spikes in internally displaced persons (IDPs) often foreshadow worsening societal conditions within three to six months.
“Instability rarely emerges out of nowhere,” Orisakwe explained. “Displacement is one of the strongest warning signs. Regardless of the reason, when large numbers of people are forced to move, it almost always signals deeper pressures that will show up in the next quarter.”
Alignment with IMF Conflict Assessments
The EBDA SI’s findings align closely with the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) latest Fragile and Conflict-Affected States (FCS) list for FY26, which flags Burkina Faso, Niger, Nigeria, and Mali as the most conflict-prone nations in West Africa.
However, Orisakwe stressed that EBDA’s index goes beyond conflict measurement. “The IMF’s FCS list is invaluable, but it is really a conflict lens. What we have built is a stability lens. We track 15 indicators across four dimensions—political, economic, social, and environmental. That means terrorism and displacement, yes, but also inflation, unemployment, corruption, political freedom, and even natural disasters.”
She added: “Conflict is often the final symptom. Our index is designed to catch the early signs—the literacy gaps, unemployment spikes, protests, floods—that can tip a country from amber into red. That is the difference between reacting late and acting early.”
From Data to Decision-Making
Orisakwe emphasized that the Stability Index is intended as a practical tool. “Governments can use it for planning, investors for risk assessment, and NGOs for humanitarian response. The real value is in moving from reaction to anticipation.”
She concluded with a cautionary note: “In a volatile environment like West Africa, foresight is survival. The Stability Index helps turn uncertainty into intelligence. That can be the difference between fragility and resilience.”
