But beneath the panic was a calculated economic gamble—one that is now reshaping Nigeria’s trade and currency stability.
By August 2025, the naira had strengthened to ₦1,525 per dollar, representing a 15.28% gain in just five months. On an annualised basis, that equates to nearly 49% appreciation. This turnaround was not accidental but the result of deliberate policies: clearing over $4 billion in foreign exchange backlogs, improved oil receipts, rising diaspora remittances, and the unification of multiple FX windows into a single transparent market rate.
Exports Find Their Edge
The shift did more than stabilise numbers on a screen. By allowing the naira to trade at its realistic value, Nigerian goods became more competitive abroad. Items like sesame, cocoa, and processed foods suddenly appeared cheaper in international markets, boosting Nigeria’s trade position without cutting into local earnings.
Figures back the trend:
- Non-oil exports jumped from $2.696 billion in H1 2024 to $3.225 billion in H1 2025—a 19.62% increase.
- Export volumes climbed from 3.83 million metric tonnes to 4.04 million metric tonnes, proving buyers were purchasing more Nigerian products, not just paying higher prices.
The Sweet Spot
The policy shift created what economists describe as a “sweet spot”:
- For global buyers, Nigerian goods became cheaper.
- For local exporters, stronger naira earnings encouraged reinvestment into value-added processing—cocoa into chocolate, sesame into bottled oil.
- For the economy, rising exports brought in foreign exchange, further strengthening the naira.
The Positive Cycle
The economic loop now looks like this:
FX Reform → Realistic Naira Value → Cheaper Dollar Prices → Export Growth → Higher FX Inflows → Stronger Naira → Investor Confidence.
This cycle feeds itself. Stronger exports bring in more dollars, reinforcing currency stability and attracting new investment.
Critics vs Reality
While critics once dismissed the naira’s depreciation as proof of weakness, economists argue the reverse is now true. A floating currency, they say, provides a competitive advantage and reduces reliance on dwindling reserves.
For President Tinubu’s team, the policy is proof that Nigeria can reposition its economy around exports rather than imports, using exchange rate reform as the catalyst.
“If Nigeria remains consistent, this will not just be about a stronger naira—it will mark the beginning of a truly export-driven economy,” said Dr. Yakubu, Director-General of the Budget Office of the Federation.
